Magic is a game of skill, but underneath the strategy lies a foundation of probability. Every draw, every land drop, and every opening hand is dictated by math—whether players recognize it or not. For expert deckbuilders, understanding these probabilities isn’t about memorizing formulas; it’s about making more informed choices during both deck construction and gameplay.

Take your opening hand, for example. If you're running 36 lands in a 100-card Commander deck, the probability of drawing at least two lands in your opening seven is around 83%. That might sound fine—but drop that to 33 lands, and suddenly your consistency drops dramatically. These small numerical shifts can have massive implications for whether your deck functions as intended in real-world play.

Mulligans introduce another layer. With the London Mulligan rule, players draw seven cards no matter what, but must bottom a card for each mulligan taken. Statistically, this means you’re more likely to see a better hand in the second or even third draw—but at the cost of card quality. Knowing the likelihood of drawing a critical ramp spell, a combo piece, or a specific color of mana can determine whether a hand is worth keeping. Expert players internalize these odds and use them as a guide rather than relying on gut instinct alone.

Probability also plays into decision-making during games. What are the chances your opponent drew a board wipe in their last four draws? Should you overextend or play conservatively? Understanding card density, drawing rates, and tutor frequency allows you to evaluate risk in real time.

In the end, probability isn’t about certainty—it’s about informed estimation. Deckbuilders who design around realistic odds rather than idealized hands create more consistent and competitive lists. And players who act with those odds in mind make smarter, sharper decisions at every turn.